One Way Plumbing LLC
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◢ fig. 01 / the portfolio — elevation
scale · n.t.s.
4 jobs · 613 units · $4.04m
Cortex · built for subcontractors
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Grounded on 41 projects · 5,218 files · 64 fields
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One Way Plumbing LLC
|
13 live + 2 closeout · $21.5M billed · 240 worker-roles · 06-09 JDR
Tuesday · Jun 9, 2026
Portfolio Flight Deck · 06-03-26 schedule
—
Live Projects.
Monday-morning command view of every active job — schedule posture, forecast margin, and the crew curve. Click any row to drop into the full project report.
◢ fig. 01 / portfolio pulse
scale · live snapshot
◢ fig. 02 / schedule matrix — jun 2026 → aug 2028 (06-03 schedule)
27 months · 15 jobs
Phases:
GW · ground work
CN · canout
RI · rough-in
TRIM
CLOSE · retention
Status:
ON TRACK
WATCH
OFF TRACK
CLOSEOUT
ON HOLD
One Way Plumbing LLC
|
Strong margin · 7 pts above industry
Closed · Retainage pending
18.6% Cortex coverage
ChinnGreenwood Ave Apartments.
#2009 · Plumbing
Seattle, WA · Greenwood & 107th
Chinn Construction, LLC
Jul 2012 → Aug 2013 · 16 months
168-unit multifamily
Total Revenue
$394,208
12 invoices to Chinn · fully billed
Net Profit
$106,309
27.0% margin · $9,308 better than budget
Total Expenses
$287,899
Labor $84.7k · Mat'l $151.1k · OH+Burden $52.1k
Retainage Outstanding
$19,710
5% of revenue · still held
◢ fig. 01 / elevation
scale · n.t.s.
chinn greenwood ave · seattle wa
168 units · 16 months
A profitable delivery — material savings absorbed labor overruns, and the job closed $36,191 under total budget.
Generated per-project from dashboard_data — populated by renderTradeAwareProjectDetail.
Project Metadata
Job Number#2009
TradePlumbing · Specialty sub
GCChinn Construction, LLC
Units168
Fixtures812
Workforce23 workers · 4,116 hrs
PermitIssued · final billing
Total Documents317 files
File Mix164 xls · 124 pdf · 26 doc · 2 zip · 1 db
Duplicates79 groups · 158 files · 25%
I
Financial.
three cards · revenue, budget, expense01 · Financial Overview
Profitable
Revenue, profit, and the margin that closed the job.
A 27.0% gross margin on $394,208 — seven points above the typical multifamily plumbing range.
$394,208
Final Contract
27.0%
Gross Margin
Original contract$384,900
Change orders (net)+$9,308
Direct cost$287,899
Net profit$106,309
Retainage (5%)$19,710
02 · Budget vs Actual
Under budget
$36,191 under revised budget across 28 cost codes.
Material savings absorbed labor overruns. Eight codes overran, twelve came in under.
Top overruns
Roughin Labor+$8,584
Payroll Burden+$1,717
Finish Labor+$1,072
Top savings
Finish Material−$33,405
Garage Material−$6,597
Subcontractor−$2,506
03 · Cost Breakdown
28 codes
Where the $287,899 went.
Four categories, dominated by Material at 52.5% of direct cost.
Material total$151,064
Labor total$84,698
Burden total$40,891
Overhead total$11,246
Cost per unit$1,714
Cost per fixture$354
II
Billing & contract.
one card · billings & schedule of values04 · Billings & Schedule of Values
12 pay apps · ~16 months
A clean, monotonic billing curve.
Twelve pay applications billed across sixteen months. Peak billing landed in app #5 during finish fixture delivery. Final retainage released at app #13.
$394,208
Billed to date
$374,498
Net paid
$0
Outstanding
This-period billing by app
APP 01051013
III
Labor & productivity.
two cards · 23 workers · 4,116 hours06 · Crew & Labor Metrics
23 workers
Lean crew, senior-led. $20.15 blended, $30.51 fully loaded.
Supervised by Jeffrey Gerard. Average 183 hrs/worker — a tight, continuous crew rather than a revolving door.
4,116
Total Hours
$20.15
Blended Wage
1.51×
Burden Mult.
Tier mix
Top earners
Quintanilla, Esteban R · Mid609 h · $15,870
Sanders, Allen O · Mid432 h · $10,872
Castro Hernandez, C · Mid349 h · $7,678
Palma Vides, Hugo · Mid304 h · $7,600
Gerard, Jeffrey S · Senior167 h · $5,341
07 · Productivity Metrics
Replicable
24.5 hours per unit. $95.77 revenue per labor hour.
Roughin absorbed 56% of all hours — the single biggest productivity lever on comparable multifamily jobs.
24.5
Hours / Unit
$95.77
Rev / Hour
10.5
Units / Mo
Hours by phase
Hours / fixture5.07
Profit / hour$25.83
Hours / month257
Revenue / month$24,638
IV
Material & procurement.
two cards · 13 vendors · 49 POs08 · Procurement Intelligence
13 vendors
High concentration — top vendor controls 73% of AP.
Single-vendor dependency flagged. Average invoice $1,805 across 84 invoices.
Vendor concentration
Invoice patterns
Total invoices84
Avg invoice size$1,805
Highest-volume vendorFerguson · 65 inv
Single-invoice vendors5 of 13
09 · Vendor Concentration
top 5 + other
Which vendors own the spend?
Donut sliced by AP $ · legend ranked by share · risk chip flags single-source-of-failure.
V
Intelligence.
three cards · insights, changes & benchmarks10 · Key Insights
12 observations
What Cortex noticed about this job.
Narrative observations distilled from the full JCR analysis.
Solid margin
27.0% net margin — well above the 15–20% industry average for specialty plumbing on multifamily.
Ferguson dom.
Ferguson alone = $115,565 (73% of AP) across 65 invoices. Single-vendor dependency.
Light crew
23 workers for 4,116 hours. Top 3 workers covered 34% of total hours.
Roughin heavy
Code 120 Roughin Labor = 2,311 hrs (~56% of all labor) and $46,114 (55% of labor cost).
On-budget
Revised budget $324,090; actual direct cost $287,899 → $36,191 under.
PO discipline
PO coverage = 102% across 49 POs — every dollar committed up front.
Short & focused
~16 months, 257 hrs/month. A lean, continuous staffing curve.
Burden ratio
Burden codes 995 + 998 = $40,891 on $84,698 labor → 48.3% burden-on-labor.
11 · Benchmark KPIs
51 normalized metrics
Apples-to-apples across the OWP portfolio.
Cortex's canonical benchmark set — grouped by Profile, Financial, Labor, Material, Productivity.
Profile
Job number#2009
General contractorChinn Construction
LocationSeattle, WA
Project typeApartment building
Duration16 mo
Plumbing units168
Total fixtures812
Fixtures / unit4.83
Financial
Contract (original)$384,900
Contract (final)$394,208
Change orders+$9,308
Revenue$394,208
Net profit$106,309
Gross margin27.0%
Direct cost$287,899
Overhead$11,246
Burden$40,891
Retainage$19,710
Revenue / unit$2,346
Profit / unit$633
Cost / unit$1,714
Revenue / fixture$485
Profit / fixture$131
Cost / fixture$355
Labor
Labor cost$84,698
Total hours4,116
Total workers23
Blended wage$20.15
Fully-loaded wage$30.51
Burden multiplier1.51×
Hours / unit24.5
Hours / fixture5.07
Labor / unit$504
Labor / fixture$104
Labor % of revenue21.5%
Material
Material cost$151,064
Material / unit$899
Material / fixture$186
Material % of revenue38.3%
Total vendors13
Top vendor spend$115,565
Top vendor %72.8%
Total POs49
PO committed$154,025
PO coverage %102.0%
Productivity
Revenue / hour$95.77
Profit / hour$25.83
Revenue / month$24,638
Hours / month257
Units / month10.5
Fixtures / month50.75
— possible fields indexed.
—
Total Documents
—
unique files ingested
Duplicates
—
groups flagged
Schemas Parsed
—
canonical sources
Fields Indexed
—
of 344 possible
Use Cases
—
unlocked
Missing Docs
—
flagged by relational map
File mix · by extension
—
Schemas Present · —
—
Schemas Missing · —
—
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This intelligence report was synthesized from primary source documents exported from OWP's Gemini accounting system, cross-referenced with supplementary worksheets and AR records.
Cortex · Specialty Sub Intelligence
REPORT #2009-IR02
Confidential · For One Way Plumbing LLC management only
14 projects
$22.03m total revenue
$7.80M combined profit
Portfolio Overview.
Closed specialty plumbing jobs ingested into Cortex — Seattle-metro multifamily and mixed-use across Exxel Pacific, SRM Development, Chinn Construction, Compass, Natural & Built, Synergy, and Blueprint Capital. Click any project to open its full intelligence report.
$22,030,963
Total Revenue
$7,801,290
Total Profit
35.4%
Weighted Avg Margin
248,420
Total Labor Hours
14
Jobs Delivered
$1.10M
Retainage Outstanding
2,330
Units Delivered
12,041
Total Fixtures
19.1 mo
Avg Duration
Labor Economics
Material Economics
Project Scale
◢ fig. 03 / margin vs. units — bubble = unit count
portfolio scatter
Margin Trend
— projects
$— total revenue
$— combined profit
Benchmark Comparison.
Canonical side-by-side across all four jobs — sourced from the OWP 4-Way benchmark workbook. Winning cell highlighted per row. Use this view to understand what makes a job profitable on a specialty subcontractor's terms.
Dollar view
Adjust dollars to year
2011
2026
2026 (today)
Inflation index
Actual $: values shown exactly as recorded on each project's JDR (nominal dollars, not cross-era comparable). Click Adjusted to scale older jobs into today's dollars for apples-to-apples comparison.
2010 is the margin outlier. 54.2% on $1.39M — 27 points above #2009, driven by material buyout discipline and a labor-light mix (14.6% of revenue vs. 21.5% average).
2009 is the margin floor. 27.0% on $394k. Smaller contract, tighter labor load, still above the industry baseline for multifamily plumbing but well below the other three.
Chinn is the preferred GC. Three of four jobs (#2009, #2010, #2011) are with Chinn Construction. Blended Chinn margin: 39.8%. Exxel (#2012): 38.3%.
Wage structure is remarkably stable. Blended gross wage across 4 jobs spans just $0.80 ($19.78 → $20.58). Fully-loaded wage spans $1.22 — crew economics are fundamentally consistent.
2011 has the best hours / fixture. 11.8 hrs per fixture vs. 17.9 on #2012. Barrett Park is the most productive per-fixture job in the portfolio.
Vendor concentration is a pattern. #2009: Ferguson alone = 73% of material spend. #2010: 18 vendors. #2012: tracks via AP only, no PO discipline.
Ingestion status
— closed parsed + — LIVE
— duplicate groups
Document Pipeline.
Raw documents flow through Cortex in four stages — ingest, classify, parse, and index. This view shows the current state of every file across all 32 OWP closed jobs.
Stage 01 · Ingested
2,418
raw files across 32 jobs
SRM Bellevue ⚠412
Exxel Republican344
SRM Astro298
+11 more jobs1,364
Stage 02 · Classified
863
schema assigned · 83%
Job Cost Reports24
Pay Applications46
Purchase Orders99
Takeoffs / Specs211
AP Invoices483
Stage 03 · Parsed
5/13
schemas fully indexed
Job Cost Report✓
Pay Application✓
Purchase Order✓
Change Orderpending
Submittal Logpending
Stage 04 · Indexed
64
fields · queryable
Financial fields22
Labor fields14
Material fields11
Schedule fields9
Metadata fields8
Stage-by-stage counts for each closed job. Green means the schema for that job is fully parsed and queryable; clay means there are still unresolved documents holding it back.
#2001 · exxel · closed
230 Broadway
282 units · $2.12M final · 39.3% margin
Ingested
412
Classified
301
Parsed
264
Indexed
48
Duplicates38 groups · 81 files
Parse confidence89.1%
Unresolved8 · ASIs, roof deck redesign
Last ingestOct 03, 2023
#2008 · srm · closed
101 Taylor
163 units · $2.33M final · 22.3% margin
Ingested
356
Classified
322
Parsed
308
Indexed
61
Duplicates21 groups · 44 files
Parse confidence94.6%
Unresolved1 · final pay app
Last ingestAug 22, 2024
#2009 · chinn · closed
Greenwood Apartments
168 units · $2.71M final · 27.0% margin
Ingested
317
Classified
289
Parsed
271
Indexed
64
Duplicates22 groups · 41 files
Parse confidence95.8%
Unresolved2 · change orders
Last ingestMar 14, 2026
#2010 · chinn · closed ★
Old Town
165 units · $3.12M final · 54.2% margin
Ingested
248
Classified
224
Parsed
212
Indexed
64
Duplicates14 groups · 28 files
Parse confidence96.4%
Unresolved0
Last ingestFeb 28, 2026
#2011 · chinn · closed
Barrett Park
117 units · $1.68M final · 38.2% margin
Ingested
189
Classified
162
Parsed
148
Indexed
58
Duplicates19 groups · 42 files
Parse confidence91.3%
Unresolved4 · submittal logs missing
Last ingestJan 19, 2026
#2012 · exxel · closed
8th Ave
163 units · $1.39M final · 39.2% margin
Ingested
288
Classified
188
Parsed
171
Indexed
52
Duplicates24 groups · 47 files
Parse confidence92.8%
Unresolved6 · scanned PDFs, OCR queue
Last ingestDec 02, 2025
#2015 · exxel · closed
Rooster Apartments
197 units · $2.15M final · 23.5% margin
Ingested
524
Classified
418
Parsed
376
Indexed
58
Duplicates31 groups · 68 files
Parse confidence90.4%
Unresolved11 · COP docs, hose bib + gas heater
Last ingestApr 09, 2026
#2016 · natural&built · closed
Sedona Apartments
80 units · $342k final · 29.5% margin
Ingested
142
Classified
131
Parsed
126
Indexed
47
Duplicates6 · 11 files
Parse confidence96.1%
Unresolved0 · first N&B job, clean
Last ingestApr 09, 2026
#2017 · exxel · closed
36 Stone Way
119 units · $1.37M final · 37.3% margin
Ingested
221
Classified
203
Parsed
194
Indexed
63
Duplicates12 groups · 26 files
Parse confidence94.8%
Unresolved1 · final retainage release
Last ingestApr 09, 2026
#2018 · srm · closed ★
Astro Apartments
212 units · $2.31M final · 46.5% margin
Ingested
298
Classified
274
Parsed
261
Indexed
64
Duplicates17 groups · 34 files
Parse confidence95.2%
Unresolved0
Last ingestApr 09, 2026
#2019 · exxel · closed ★
8th & Republican
211 units · $2.88M final · 47.0% margin · portfolio leader
Ingested
344
Classified
312
Parsed
298
Indexed
64
Duplicates22 groups · 47 files
Parse confidence96.7%
Unresolved0
Last ingestApr 09, 2026
#2020 · srm · closed ⚠
Bellevue @ Main
288 units · $2.86M final · 32.3% margin · labor +29% over budget
Ingested
412
Classified
364
Parsed
331
Indexed
61
Duplicates28 groups · 64 files
Parse confidence91.8%
Unresolved9 · labor variance backup, COs
Last ingestApr 09, 2026
#2021 · exxel · closed
Admiral East
182 units · $1.58M final · 28.4% margin
Ingested
258
Classified
231
Parsed
214
Indexed
59
Duplicates15 groups · 32 files
Parse confidence92.4%
Unresolved5 · CO log, final pay app
Last ingestApr 09, 2026
#2022 · exxel · closed
3651 Interlake
20 units · $243k final · 35.9% margin · smallest job
Ingested
71
Classified
66
Parsed
63
Indexed
58
Duplicates3 · 6 files
Parse confidence96.9%
Unresolved0
Last ingestApr 09, 2026
#2023 · chinn · closed
Legacy Apartments (Mercer Island)
241 units · $2.77M final · 32.4% margin
Ingested
342
Classified
296
Parsed
268
Indexed
56
Duplicates17 groups · 34 files
Parse confidence90.4%
Unresolved5 · image-only CO scans
Last ingestApr 14, 2026
#2024 · srm · closed ★
Ballard Merrill Gardens
116 units · $1.81M final · 48.9% margin · senior-living
Ingested
298
Classified
274
Parsed
262
Indexed
63
Duplicates11 groups · 22 files
Parse confidence97.2%
Unresolved0
Last ingestApr 14, 2026
#2025 · exxel · closed
The Cora
80 units · $1.20M final · 32.0% margin
Ingested
201
Classified
186
Parsed
174
Indexed
61
Duplicates8 groups · 17 files
Parse confidence95.5%
Unresolved1 · rolled-forward COR log
Last ingestApr 14, 2026
#2026 · synergy · closed
Fox & Finch (525 Boren)
60 units · $831k final · 34.0% margin
Ingested
148
Classified
128
Parsed
116
Indexed
55
Duplicates6 groups · 12 files
Parse confidence89.8%
Unresolved3 · no RFI/Submittal subfolders
Last ingestApr 14, 2026
#2027 · exxel · closed
Zig Apartments (550 Broadway)
170 units · $2.28M final · 40.5% margin
Ingested
336
Classified
304
Parsed
282
Indexed
58
Duplicates19 groups · 42 files
Parse confidence91.4%
Unresolved4 · BVA object-format, CO trail
Last ingestMar 22, 2026
#2028 · exxel · closed ★
Reserve @ Lynnwood
296 units · $2.68M final · 48.9% margin
Ingested
384
Classified
346
Parsed
321
Indexed
58
Duplicates24 groups · 51 files
Parse confidence92.1%
Unresolved3 · BVA object-format
Last ingestMar 28, 2026
#2029 · exxel · closed ★
Parsonage
83 units · $1.12M final · 49.8% margin
Ingested
206
Classified
188
Parsed
178
Indexed
63
Duplicates9 groups · 17 files
Parse confidence95.9%
Unresolved1 · BVA 9-col format
Last ingestMar 30, 2026
#2030 · exxel · closed
East Union
144 units · $2.32M final · 38.1% margin
Ingested
287
Classified
261
Parsed
248
Indexed
63
Duplicates13 groups · 28 files
Parse confidence94.3%
Unresolved1 · BVA 9-col format
Last ingestApr 02, 2026
#2031 · exxel · closed ★
Issaquah Gateway
398 units · $5.19M final · 53.2% margin
Ingested
482
Classified
441
Parsed
418
Indexed
64
Duplicates31 groups · 68 files
Parse confidence96.7%
Unresolved2 · portfolio-largest scope
Last ingestApr 07, 2026
#2032 · blueprint · closed
Luna Apartments (Roosevelt)
71 units · $726k final · 45.2% margin
Ingested
176
Classified
158
Parsed
148
Indexed
64
Duplicates7 groups · 14 files
Parse confidence95.4%
Unresolved1 · first Blueprint job
Last ingestApr 11, 2026
#2033 · compass harbor · closed
Compass Vuecrest
137 units · $2.34M final · 43.1% margin
Ingested
294
Classified
268
Parsed
251
Indexed
64
Duplicates11 groups · 24 files
Parse confidence95.2%
Unresolved1 · retainage aging
Last ingestApr 16, 2026
#2034 · compass harbor · closed
Compass Park Lane
128 units · $1.90M final · 32.4% margin
Ingested
271
Classified
244
Parsed
228
Indexed
64
Duplicates9 groups · 19 files
Parse confidence94.8%
Unresolved2 · CO#02b emerge, retainage aging
Last ingestApr 17, 2026
#2035 · natural & built · closed
162 Ten
92 units · $0.72M final · 49.7% margin ★
Ingested
184
Classified
166
Parsed
152
Indexed
48
Duplicates6 groups · 14 files
Parse confidence95.4%
Unresolved1 · retainage aging (7+ yrs)
Last ingestApr 17, 2026
#2036 · exxel pacific · closed
Westridge
31 units · $0.42M final · 34.0% margin
Ingested
146
Classified
132
Parsed
118
Indexed
41
Duplicates4 groups · 9 files
Parse confidence94.1%
Unresolved1 · retainage aging
Last ingestApr 17, 2026
#2037 · marpac · closed ★
University Apts (MYSA)
122 units · $2.08M final · 41.4% margin
Ingested
318
Classified
288
Parsed
264
Indexed
76
Duplicates12 groups · 26 files
Parse confidence93.9%
Unresolved2 · new GC, retainage aging
Last ingestApr 17, 2026
#2038 · compass harbor · closed
2nd & John
80 units · $1.20M final · 32.5% margin
Ingested
244
Classified
220
Parsed
202
Indexed
58
Duplicates8 groups · 18 files
Parse confidence94.2%
Unresolved1 · retainage aging
Last ingestApr 17, 2026
#2040 · blueprint · closed
Brooklyn 65
55 units · $0.62M final · 35.2% margin
Ingested
172
Classified
156
Parsed
142
Indexed
44
Duplicates5 groups · 11 files
Parse confidence94.6%
Unresolved1 · retainage aging
Last ingestApr 17, 2026
#2041 · chinn · closed
Luna 2749 California
108 units · $1.88M final · 29.4% margin
Ingested
278
Classified
246
Parsed
231
Indexed
74
Duplicates6 groups · 15 files
Parse confidence96.1%
Unresolved1 · retainage aging
Last ingestApr 03, 2026
#2042 · shelter holdings · closed
Metro Line Flats
72 units · $0.92M final · 35.6% margin
Ingested
214
Classified
192
Parsed
181
Indexed
58
Duplicates6 groups · 12 files
Parse confidence95.3%
Unresolved1 · retainage aging
Last ingestApr 18, 2026
#2043 · compass · closed
Aegis Mercer Island
98 units · $1.58M final · 46.0% margin
Ingested
241
Classified
218
Parsed
203
Indexed
71
Duplicates8 groups · 17 files
Parse confidence95.7%
Unresolved1 · retainage aging
Last ingestApr 19, 2026
#2044 · blueprint · closed
Track 66
75 units · $0.86M final · 31.1% margin
Ingested
198
Classified
179
Parsed
167
Indexed
54
Duplicates5 groups · 11 files
Parse confidence95.1%
Unresolved0 · retainage cleared
Last ingestApr 20, 2026
#2045 · gre · closed
Notch Apartments
158 units · $2.11M final · 46.1% margin
Ingested
287
Classified
258
Parsed
246
Indexed
62
Duplicates7 groups · 14 files
Parse confidence94.9%
Unresolved1 · retainage $105k outstanding
Last ingestApr 20, 2026
#2046 · marpac · closed
4218 Roosevelt (Sundodger)
110 units · $1.72M final · 43.6% margin
Ingested
231
Classified
208
Parsed
194
Indexed
51
Duplicates6 groups · 12 files
Parse confidence95.4%
Unresolved1 · retainage $86k outstanding
Last ingestApr 20, 2026
#2047 · gre · closed
Greenlake (prior-sub takeover)
70 units · $553k final · 33.8% margin
Ingested
157
Classified
141
Parsed
132
Indexed
44
Duplicates5 groups · 9 files
Parse confidence93.7%
Unresolved2 · retainage $28k · Peltram takeover docs
Last ingestApr 20, 2026
#2048 · gre · closed
The 205 Ballinger
72 units · $517k final · 43.0% margin
Ingested
145
Classified
131
Parsed
124
Indexed
41
Duplicates4 groups · 7 files
Parse confidence95.1%
Unresolved1 · retainage $26k outstanding
Last ingestApr 20, 2026
#2049 · exxel · closed
Reserve Lynnwood Rebuild
295 units · $3.00M final · 48.9% margin · sister of #2028
Ingested
362
Classified
331
Parsed
311
Indexed
78
Duplicates9 groups · 18 files
Parse confidence94.5%
Unresolved2 · retainage $150k · fire-event linkage to #2028
Last ingestApr 20, 2026
#2050 · compass harbor · closed
2100 Madison (Avant)
50 units · $918,566 final · 46.5% margin · +$20,766 COs
Ingested
196
Classified
183
Parsed
176
Indexed
62
Duplicates4 groups · 8 files
Parse confidence95.1%
Unresolved1 · retainage $45.9k outstanding
Last ingestApr 20, 2026
#2051 · compass · closed
Vail Apts
163 units · $2.59M final · 50.0% margin · −$83.7k COs
Ingested
672
Classified
578
Parsed
557
Indexed
180
Duplicates22 groups · 44 files
Parse confidence92.8%
Unresolved— · all closed
Last ingestApr 25, 2026
#2052 · farrell-mckenna · closed
5th & Roy
107 units · $2.23M final · 45.4% margin · +$97.0k COs
Ingested
455
Classified
427
Parsed
395
Indexed
135
Duplicates15 groups · 45 files
Parse confidence92.2%
Unresolved— · all closed
Last ingestApr 25, 2026
#2053 · compass harbor · closed
Parkside
135 units · $2.33M final · 40.0% margin · +$32.4k COs
Ingested
552
Classified
502
Parsed
478
Indexed
177
Duplicates18 groups · 90 files
Parse confidence96.2%
Unresolved— · all closed
Last ingestApr 25, 2026
#2054 · blueprint · closed
800 5th
68 units · $843k final · 14.5% margin · +$57.5k COs
Ingested
266
Classified
238
Parsed
222
Indexed
85
Duplicates8 groups · 24 files
Parse confidence96.6%
Unresolved— · all closed
Last ingestApr 25, 2026
#2055 · blueprint · closed
Dockside
98 units · $1.32M final · 25.8% margin · +$173.1k COs
Ingested
416
Classified
371
Parsed
347
Indexed
111
Duplicates13 groups · 26 files
Parse confidence96.6%
Unresolved— · all closed
Last ingestApr 25, 2026
#2056 · exxel · closed
Acme
321 units · $6.03M final · 43.8% margin · +$157.5k COs
Ingested
1269
Classified
1126
Parsed
1060
Indexed
354
Duplicates42 groups · 84 files
Parse confidence93.6%
Unresolved— · all closed
Last ingestApr 25, 2026
#2057 · n&b · closed
Plaza
111 units · $1.13M final · 49.4% margin · +$35.1k COs
Ingested
453
Classified
409
Parsed
400
Indexed
135
Duplicates15 groups · 60 files
Parse confidence95.3%
Unresolved— · all closed
Last ingestApr 25, 2026
#2058 · blueprint · closed
Howell
76 units · $962k final · 27.3% margin · +$32.8k COs
Ingested
320
Classified
278
Parsed
256
Indexed
93
Duplicates10 groups · 20 files
Parse confidence96.6%
Unresolved— · all closed
Last ingestApr 25, 2026
#2059 · gre · closed
Meeker
107 units · $4.49M final · 32.9% margin · +$113.7k COs
Ingested
422
Classified
395
Parsed
372
Indexed
128
Duplicates14 groups · 42 files
Parse confidence97.0%
Unresolved— · all closed
Last ingestApr 25, 2026
#2060 · compass · closed
MSQ
254 units · $6.16M final · 58.2% margin · +$849.1k COs
Ingested
1019
Classified
902
Parsed
866
Indexed
320
Duplicates33 groups · 66 files
Parse confidence96.1%
Unresolved— · all closed
Last ingestApr 25, 2026
#2098 · chinn · LIVE
Trailside 2
170 units · $6.92M contract · 100% billed · retention-release
Ingested
812
Classified
741
Parsed
692
Indexed
partial
Live SOVs ingested22 of 22 monthly pay apps · 100% billed
Change ordersnet +$32,086 (+0.47%) · tight CO profile
Watch flags5 · Finish/Gas/Mech Rm/Warranty/UG Mat'l
Retention held$345,898 · release pending Q3 2025
Last ingestApr 23, 2026 (daily)
#2104 · bmdc · LIVE
Big 1410 Apartments
24 units · $1.20M contract · 99.76% billed · in trim
Ingested
248
Classified
221
Parsed
203
Indexed
partial
Live SOVs ingested18 of 18 monthly pay apps
Change orders4 executed ($52.7k) · 1 cancelled
Unresolved3 · final vendor ledger at closeout
Last ingestApr 18, 2026 (daily)
#2103 · compass general · LIVE
Northgate Station M2
234 units · $6.63M contract · 99.75% billed · trim phase
Ingested
412
Classified
376
Parsed
348
Indexed
partial
Live SOVs ingested22 of 22 monthly pay apps · 99.75% billed
Change ordersnet +$594,362 (+9.86%) · sister of #2111
Watch flags5 · 110/111/120 labor, 211 mat'l, 995 burden
Retention held$305,092 · release pending closeout
Last ingestApr 24, 2026 (daily)
#2111 · compass · LIVE
Northgate Station M3
186 units · $4.51M contract · 48.8% billed · roughin
Ingested
637
Classified
572
Parsed
521
Indexed
partial
Live SOVs ingested7 of 7 monthly pay apps
Change orders7 executed ($89.9k) · 7 CORs pending
Unresolved2 · COR#15 ASI 36 pricing
Last ingestApr 18, 2026 (daily)
#2112 · bmdc · LIVE
Big 3 Apartments
20 units · $0.70M contract · 74.4% billed · trim
Ingested
459
Classified
413
Parsed
378
Indexed
partial
Live SOVs ingested9 of 9 monthly pay apps
Change orders9 executed ($32.3k) · 1 COR pending
Unresolved2 · icemakers, disposals rejected
Last ingestApr 18, 2026 (daily)
#2114 · holland · LIVE
Ballard Blossom Apartments
239 units · $5.67M contract · 1.4% billed · design / DD
Ingested
32
Classified
30
Parsed
28
Indexed
early
Bid set + proposals5 proposal revs (May 14 → May 28 reduced) + scope matrix
Design / engineeringRobison fee $55k paid · MG2 DD Review · IFC Stacks Jan 2026
Long-lead POs2 · Pacific 53729 (GW PVC) + 53731 (Roof PVC)
OutstandingSubcontract not yet filed · RI foreman TBD
Last ingestApr 24, 2026 (pre-construction)
#2115 · chinn · LIVE
Elowen Apartments
2-building · $3.94M base bid · Lake Stevens · design/DD
Ingested
18
Classified
16
Parsed
14
Indexed
early
Bid + proposals6 proposal revs (Sep 2025 → Jan 2026)
Design proposalSigned Dec 3, 2025 · Matthew Burton (North Cove)
PlansBuilding B Plan Set filed Sep 23, 2025
OutstandingConstruction subcontract pending · Bldg A plans TBD
Last ingestApr 24, 2026
#2116 · srm · LIVE
The V Apartments
166 units · $3.26M GMP executed · Seattle · pre-construction
Ingested
45
Classified
42
Parsed
38
Indexed
early
Bid + proposals5 proposal revs (Sep 2025 → Feb 2026 Gas WH VE)
GMP contractNYL / SRM executed Feb 24, 2026 (redacted copy)
SubmittalsUnderground (Jan 20 2026) + Unit Fixtures (Mar 19 2026)
Change OrdersCOR#2 in flight (Mar 25, 2026)
OutstandingOWP subcontract under GMP not filed · VE pending
Last ingestApr 24, 2026
#2117 · ravenna · LIVE
Lachlan Apartments
~104 units · 8-story + penthouse · 3421 Woodland Park · design/DD
Ingested
15
Classified
13
Parsed
11
Indexed
early
Job ticketJan 14, 2026 · fixture schedule locked
PlansProgress Set Mar 27, 2026 · Civil + Structural
Design / MEPFranklin Engineering (FEProp Jan 22, 2026)
OutstandingBid sheet · OWP proposal · subcontract all TBD
Last ingestApr 24, 2026
#2118 · exxel · LIVE
Edmonds Behar Apartments
406 units · 6-story 2 towers + 3 below-grade · $7.18M total · bidding/design
Ingested
35
Classified
32
Parsed
28
Indexed
bidding
Bid historyMar 2024 → Jan 2026 · 7+ proposal revs over 22 months
Design contractRobison $125k · signed Mar 16, 2026
Latest OWP proposalJan 16, 2026 · $7,183,400 total plumbing budget
GMP SetDated Nov 27, 2024 (design basis)
OutstandingNo Gemini JDR · OWP subcontract pending
Last ingestApr 24, 2026
#2119 · exxel · LIVE
The Frank (508 Fremont)
Multifamily · Exxel Pacific · Graham developer · pre-bid / mockup-only
Ingested
8
Classified
7
Parsed
6
Indexed
pre-bid
Mockup proposal$4,700 · Nov 13, 2024
Bid statusExxel bid set received · OWP proposal pending
Exxel subcontract sampleFolder filed on Drive (standard Exxel template)
OutstandingFull OWP proposal · bid sheet · unit/fixture counts
Last ingestApr 24, 2026
Duplicate rate
22%
224 groups · 494 files · across 32 jobs
Parse confidence
93.6%
avg across parsed schemas
Unresolved docs
31
manual review queue
— nodes · — edges
— closed · — active · — bidding
— GCs · — vendors
Project Atlas.
Every job, the GCs that hired them, the vendors who supplied them, the crews who built them — and the lines between them. The patterns Cortex sees that you can't from a spreadsheet. Static layout, click any node for the full record.
All
Projects only
+ GCs
+ Vendors
click any node to focus · esc to reset · cortex.atlas v0.1
◢ fig. 02 / portfolio graph
nodes · 93 · edges · 131
scale · n.t.s. · scroll →
cortex · one way plumbing llc
Every GC, summarized.
click any card to focus its network above
⚠
Bellevue labor outlier
#2020 Bellevue ran labor +29% over budget; 288u Pillar SRM mid-rise.
◆
SRM mix · do not blend
SRM portfolio is 3 jobs across distinct programs (high-rise, mid-rise, senior). Don't average their KPIs.
★
Rosen Supply · pervasive
Top vendor on 8 jobs across 3 GCs. Consider portfolio-level pricing leverage.
⚠
Ferguson concentration
Single point of failure on 3 jobs (~$160k+ each). Diversify on next bid.
◆
Wage stability
$0.80 wage spread across 5 jobs · same crew tier mix.
⚠
Material escalation Q2
Copper +14%, PEX +9% during Q2 spike — pricing locked in advance on #2017/#2018.
★
Chinn = preferred GC
59.8% blended margin across 4 Chinn jobs · highest sustained GC profitability.
◆
Tier-1 Crew Alpha
8-plumber high-output crew · stable across 4 jobs.
◆
PM Garcia
Project manager spans all Chinn jobs.
◆
Foreman Reyes
Field foreman across 2 jobs.
Project
closed job
GC
general contractor
Vendor
material supplier
Crew / PM
people
Insight
pattern Cortex sees
⚠ Single point of failure
Ferguson is concentrated. Three Chinn jobs (#2009 at 73% material share, #2010 at 41%, #2011 at 38%) source the majority of their material from one vendor. If Ferguson has a fulfillment problem, three projects feel it simultaneously. The graph makes the radius of that risk visible — diversify on the next bid.
✓ Trunk relationship
Chinn is the trunk. 4 of 6 closed jobs, the active job, and the proposed bid all hang off one node. Chinn is not just a customer — they are the portfolio. Worth a quarterly relationship review and a named account owner.
○ Hidden continuity
PM Garcia is on every Chinn job. Including #2014. The relationship continuity is itself a margin lever — Chinn approves COs faster when Garcia submits them. Not in any spreadsheet. Visible as a star in the graph.
⚠ Inheritance
Closest-comp inheritance is the right baseline. When a new bid invitation lands, Cortex finds the single closest analog (same GC, same scale, same building type, same fixture density) — not the portfolio average. The blind-test replay of #2061 Alta Columbia City in Bid Intelligence shows this in action: Cortex matched against #2019 8th & Republican (closest scale, mid-rise, closed by Jun 2019), not the mean of all 6 then-closed Exxel jobs — and applied a 20% forward inflation adjustment for the 3-year build window.
✓ Crew is a fixed asset
Tier-1 Crew Alpha = same 8 plumbers across 4 jobs. They are why your fully-loaded wage spans only $1.22 across the portfolio — and why the productivity ratchet works at all. Lose one of them and the next bid's labor estimate moves more than you'd expect.
○ Vendor segregation
Vendors split along GC lines. Ferguson and McLendon serve Chinn jobs. Pacific Plumbing serves Exxel jobs. There's no overlap — meaning your supplier negotiations are effectively two separate conversations. Consolidating could yield 4–7% on material spend.
— invitations
— bids · —% win-rate
Replay · Jun 21 2019 deadline
+35% inflation · +10% mix-use
Anchor: $1,837/fx · pre-2019 base + inflation + mix-use
Bid Intelligence.
Hypothetical replay — Job #2061 Alta Columbia City. Pretend it's June 2019 and this invitation just landed. Cortex matches it against the closed-job portfolio (no peeking at 2061's actuals), predicts cost from comparables, scores Exxel's payment and change-order behavior, and recommends a margin floor. Then we compare to what actually happened — final contract $4,305,550 → $4,430,088 with 41.4% achieved margin over 33 months.
◢ invitation · cortex.parse v1
received · jun 14 2019 · hypothetical replay
exxel pacific · seattle · phase code L1.220000S
ref · INV-19-2061
Project
Alta Columbia City — mixed-use mid-rise
243 units · 6-story + P3 garage · 6 retail spaces · Columbia City, Seattle (3717 S Alaska St)
Owner: Gateway Alta Rainer LLC
Arch: Johnston Architects
MEP: Rushing Engineering
Trade: Plumbing (OCIP/WRAP)
General Contractor
Exxel Pacific
✓ Known GC · 6 closed by Jun 2019 · closest comparable: #2019 8th & Republican (211u · 47.0% margin · mid-rise)
Bid due
Jun 21 · 5pm
7 days remaining
Scope estimate (auto-parsed)
| Predicted fixtures | 1,450 |
| Schedule (months) | 33 |
| Stories above grade | 6 |
| Building type | Mid-rise mixed-use + retail |
| Parking | Underground, 3 levels (P1/P2/P3) |
Your bid
$5,168,000
$24,037/unit · $4,082/RI fx · 2nd bid May 2026
Cortex true expected margin
33.3%
P25–P75 band: 23.6% → 40.8% · n=4 HP-archetype
Estimator's margin
13.2%
$4.49M cost (P88 of distribution) · 20 pts conservative
Cortex predicted profit
$1.72M
vs estimator's $681k O&P · +$1.04M upside if median holds
◢ fig. B / direct cost · estimator → cortex prediction
v3 atoms · n=83 closed · n=4 HP-archetype
Estimator (May 2026 bid sheet)
$4,486,389
86.8% of bid · 13.2% margin
Δ (Cortex − Estimator)
−$1.04M
cost is lower
○ Cortex prediction · median
$3,449,520
66.7% of bid · 33.3% margin
69% of the gap
−$720k labor
Estimator hours sit at HP archetype P75; Cortex median is the 102.63 hrs/u centerpoint of n=4 closed HP-central jobs.
23% of the gap
−$238k material
Estimator's $1,902/RI fx is above the closed-portfolio anchor of $1,713/fx (inflated to 2027.5).
8% of the gap
−$78k tax + misc
WA sales tax line that the estimator carries explicitly; Cortex's portfolio anchor already absorbs this.
Inflation trail: closed-job actuals (mostly 2022$) → +11% to 2026$ → +7.6% forward to 2027.5 procurement midpoint · Labor 4%/yr · Material 3.5%/yr blended · Fixtures 5-7%/yr · HP equip 8%/yr post-IRA
○ This bid · feature vector parsed from Drive folder
01 · Building type
Multifamily mid-rise
Type IIIA wood / IA podium
02 · Heat system
HP central plant
4 NYLE WHs · 5 storage tanks
03 · Stories
8 above + 3 below
B/G garage drainage scope
04 · Unit count
215
100–199 / 200–499 cusp
05 · Fixture density
5.89 fx/u
1,266 RI / 215u
06 · GC
Chinn Construction
7 closed · 31% win rate
07 · Owner class
Trammell Crow
High Street Northwest Dev
08 · MEP engineer
TBD
flag · likely Franklin/ECE
09 · Site complexity
Urban Bellevue
downtown · 38k SF site
10 · Insurance class
Standard
no OCIP / wrap
11 · Specialty scope
2 dog wash · sauna
+ frost locker · OWS
12 · Build window
Q4 2026 → Q1 2029
proc midpoint Q3 2027
13 · Era productivity
2026 baseline
+8% wage / 4yr drift
14 · Market temp
Busy
capacity-constrained
◢ fig. B.5 / weighted comp cohort · top 12 of 80 closed jobs
claude-scored · 14-dim similarity · re-runs each parse
| # | Job | GC | Units | HEAT | SITE | INS | Margin | Similarity | Weight |
|---|
○ Cortex weighted prediction
$3,449,520
Σ (atom × similarity) ÷ Σ similarity · n=12 cohort
P25–P75 confidence band
±$396k
$3.05M → $3.85M · cohort heterogeneity
Top driver feature
HP-central + Standard insurance
37% of cohort weight from this combo
⚠ Risk flag
Bellevue urban · N=1
only #2020 matches site complexity
○ Cortex's reasoning · why these 12 comps
The 12-comp cohort is anchored to HP-central plant scope under Standard insurance — the two highest-weight features for Chinn 1200. The strongest single signal is #2087 Northgate Roosevelt (332u Exxel HP-central, 47.6% margin, $2.97M net — highest dollar profit in OWP's portfolio history). When #2087's atoms (105.4 hrs/u, $1,684/RI fx inflated to 2027.5$) are mapped onto Chinn 1200's 215u + 1,266 fx scope, they predict $3.41M direct cost. #2061 Alta Columbia City (243u, 41.4% margin) and #2069 Theory U-District (342u, 38.7% margin) reinforce that anchor — both Exxel HP-central, both Standard insurance, both built between 2019-2023 with similar urban fixture-density profiles.
The Bellevue urban site complexity is the weakest dimension in the cohort — only #2020 Bellevue Main (256u SRM/Exxel JV) shares it, and #2020 is a margin outlier at 8.1%. Cortex weights #2020 at 11% (not zero) because the urban site signal matters, but down-weights its margin contribution because the 2014-era productivity profile no longer applies. Net effect: +6% site-complexity uplift applied to the cost prediction (vs the suburban HP-central baseline). 9 of the 12 weighted comps achieved 28-42% margin on similar-scope pursuits, placing the estimator's 13.2% prediction below the 5th percentile of the cohort distribution. Confidence band ±$396k reflects the genuine cohort heterogeneity (Bellevue/Main outlier, smaller Compass HP comps).
Risk flags Cortex would push to the bid studio for human review: (a) MEP engineer not yet specified — Cortex assumed Franklin/ECE based on Chinn historical pattern; (b) HP-central cohort is N=4 closed jobs, narrow inferential base — recommend wider confidence band on labor; (c) Bellevue urban site complexity has only N=1 closed match (#2020), consider primary-source verification of permit/site costs.
Auto-derived from bid sheet upload. Predicted fixtures, units, and schedule pulled from the ESTIMATE tab. Direct cost $/fx anchored to closest pre-2019 Exxel mid-rise comp. Override any value below to see win-prob recompute live.
Plumbing units
→ implied labor: — hrs · — @ $40.23/hr loaded
Predicted fixtures
Schedule (months)
Direct cost $ / fixture (2019 $)
→ pre-2019 Exxel mid-rise median $1,237 + 35% inflation (RSMeans 2019-22) + 10% mixed-use premium = $1,837/fx · derived contract: —/fx
General contractor
Margin floor — 32.0%
0%50%
— OWP band: P25 33.9% · median 41.4% · P75 47.7%
Contingency reserve — 3.0%
0%10%
Material escalation — 0.0%
0%10%
All downstream tables (cost prediction, GC scorecard, SOV) update live as you change inputs.
▼ Where bids systematically over-estimate (cushion)
These cost codes consistently come in under their original budget. Treat their original-budget as a soft ceiling, not a target.
▲ Where bids systematically under-estimate (overrun)
These cost codes consistently come in over their original budget. Pad these line items at takeoff or the bid carries hidden risk.
—
Cortex recommends
Bid at the floor — expected profit peaks here.
Your bid
$2,618,675
47% markup · 32.0% margin
Direct cost (incl. cont+esc)$1,780,699
Profit if won$837,976
P(win)31%
Expected profit$259,773
E[profit] = P(win) × profit. Cortex prefers the scenario that maximizes this, not the one with the highest margin.
Optimal bid (peak E[profit])
$2,540,000
30.0% · $275K
Win probability vs bid price
P(win)
E[profit]
your bid
$0
$0
Drag the handle on the chart, or use the slider here ↑
Your bid: — · —
Logistic fit · P(win)=50% pivot calibrated to Chinn's historical win rate at OWP's floor margin · curve steepness anchored on scope-match tightness
Scenario comparison — three bid postures
Click a card to set your bid to that scenario
| Cost component | Predicted | P10 → P90 | % of total |
|---|
Confidence
Medium
Per-code mean and σ are calibrated across 78 closed jobs — n=78 on the 14 major codes (Roughin Labor, Finish/Roughin Material, Payroll Burden, etc.), median per-code n=70+ across 4 schema generations (v2.0/v2.1/v2.2 + v1.0 XLSX bridge). Default is anchored at $1,684/fx direct cost — the median of the four mid-rise comparables (#2001 $1,641 · #2008 $1,641 · #2018 $1,684 · #2028 $1,634, all in 2026 $). The tier anchor uses cohort comparables; the per-code σ driving P10–P90 uses the top-10 highest-$/fx codes (the codes that actually move portfolio cost). All figures are direct cost in 2026 $ (escalated 3.5%/yr — ENR-CCI 2020-2024 actual ran ~5%, so this is conservative); contingency + escalation + margin are applied separately to derive the contract bid price.
Cost codes modeled34 codes
Calibration sample78 closed jobs (n=78 on major codes · 4 schema gens)
Portfolio base · $/fx$1,324
Scale-tier default · $/fx$1,684
Portfolio σ · top-10 by $/fx median26.9%
Margin floor sourceChinn blended (4 jobs)
Walk-away threshold< 28.0%
Win-rate at floorest. 41%
Closed jobs
4
#2008, #2009, #2010, #2011
Blended margin
39.8%
vs 38.3% portfolio avg
Avg payment lag
47d
industry median 58d
CO approval rate
78%
11 of 14 submitted, 4 jobs
✓ Strong GC profile
Chinn pays 11 days faster than the regional median, approves more than three out of four change orders submitted, and produced your portfolio's highest-margin job (#2010 at 54.2%). They are the preferred GC in the historical record. No payment-behavior reasons to discount margin or pad contingency.
Cortex drafts an SOV from your historical phase ratios. Edit before submission.
| Phase | Cost | Value (32.0% margin) | % of bid | Source |
|---|
All numbers derived from PROJECTS data · refreshed Apr 8 2026
○ Cortex verdict
The estimator is 20 points conservative. The bid is fine. The cost model is padded.
Cortex's HP-archetype median predicts $3.45M true cost on this scope, inflation-adjusted to the 2027.5 procurement midpoint. The estimator's $4.49M sits at the P88 of the predicted distribution. Either the estimator built in $1M of soft padding (defensible — Bellevue urban, ECE design, COB permit jump), or the bid is meaningfully over-priced for the market. Win-probability is 23% at $5.17M; sharpening to $4.7M climbs to ~32%.
- → Hold the line. Ship the $5.17M bid. Cortex predicts 33% true margin, well above Chinn's portfolio range (32-44%). Likely net $1.5-1.8M profit instead of the $681k O&P shown.
- → Sharpen to win. Drop bid by $400-500k to $4.65-4.75M. Win-probability climbs 23% → 32%+. True margin still lands at 26-29%, above Chinn's median.
- → Diagnose the labor. Estimator's labor sits at HP-archetype P75 (~115 hrs/u vs median 102.63). Ask: Bellevue-urban-specific cushion, or systematic HP-central padding? If the latter, OWP is leaving margin on every HP-central pursuit.
- → Watch SJS Mechanical. Comes in −$217k below OWP on Chinn-class jobs (5 wins). At $5.17M you're likely $400-500k above SJS; sharpening to $4.7M closes the gap.
Adds this bid to your Projects → Bidding pipeline. Surfaces in the bid history table, Atlas, and Job Health view as a live pursuit until won/lost.
last analyzed · 2026-05-10 · v3.2 atoms
Every bid OWP has pursued, earliest first. Closed jobs are the ground truth Cortex uses to price the next one; lost bids anchor the win-rate calibration. ✓ 400 resolved bid rows + 6 active (May–Jun 2026) ingested from Project List with Schedule · UPDATED 06-03-26 — 102 won + 298 lost + 6 active pursuits (Chinn 1200, 2601 Elliott, KOZ BelRed, Elowen Compass, Elowen Chinn, Freestone). Unit counts, bid $, GC, owner, competitor, and bid date are all live. Direct-cost and margin columns are empty on lost rows by definition (no actuals to reconcile).
Bids total
—
2011 → 2026
Won
—
win-rate: —
Closed contract $
—
won + billed
Blended margin
—
gross · dollar-weighted
CO drift
—
final vs bid contract
Active / bidding
—
open pursuits
| # | Year | Project | GC | Units | Fixtures | Orig bid $ | COs | Final $ | Cost $ | Profit $ | Margin % | $/Unit | Status |
|---|
○ Cortex note · data state & next ingest
Full lifetime corpus is wired — 102 won jobs from the Job Info tab + 298 lost formal bids + 6 active pursuits (May–Jun 2026) from the Projects Bid tab of Project List with Schedule - UPDATED 06-03-26.xlsx = 406 submitted bids. Real bid-submission win rate is 25.5% (102 / 400 resolved), unchanged from the prior cut — neither the Job Info contract list nor the 102 wins moved between 05-01 and 06-03; the delta is 6 fresh BID/BUDGET pursuits (Chinn 1200, 2601 Elliott, KOZ BelRed, Elowen Compass, Elowen Chinn, Freestone) and timeline extensions to 2027–2028 for several live jobs. Excluded from the calc: 121 BUDGET rows (early-stage estimates, never formally submitted) and 83 DECLINED invitations (capacity-constrained no-bids). $1.04B lost-bid denominator across the 298 formal losses.
Still missing on lost rows: (1) Winner's contract $ — master file carries OWP's Base Bid but not who won or for how much; a few competitor guesses live in the Notes column. Delta-to-winner analysis needs an award-tracking pass. (2) Fixture counts on lost pursuits — the master file doesn't carry fixtures so the column is blank on all 260 lost rows (not estimated). Pulling the per-pursuit bid_xxxx.xlsx from each Drive folder would fill these in from real SOV line items. (3) Actual award confirmation — the BID tag means "unresolved as of 06-03-26," so a handful may still be out for award or awarded after the file was last touched. (4) BUDGET-tier rows ingestion, if Cortex wants early-stage pricing signal.
Still missing on lost rows: (1) Winner's contract $ — master file carries OWP's Base Bid but not who won or for how much; a few competitor guesses live in the Notes column. Delta-to-winner analysis needs an award-tracking pass. (2) Fixture counts on lost pursuits — the master file doesn't carry fixtures so the column is blank on all 260 lost rows (not estimated). Pulling the per-pursuit bid_xxxx.xlsx from each Drive folder would fill these in from real SOV line items. (3) Actual award confirmation — the BID tag means "unresolved as of 06-03-26," so a handful may still be out for award or awarded after the file was last touched. (4) BUDGET-tier rows ingestion, if Cortex wants early-stage pricing signal.
◢ fig. H / scatter — every bid 2016-2026
— bids · — won · — lost
Win rate by $/unit bucket
Win rate by GC (top 6 by bid count)
— active jobs
— flagged
—–—% complete
Job Health.
Live monitor for in-progress jobs. Cortex compares the actual burn curve to the historical baseline derived from comparable closed jobs at the same %-complete. You see overruns at week 4, not month 4.
◢ active · job #2014
last sync · 6 hours ago
chinn construction · seattle
eta · aug 28 2026
Active job
Capitol Hill 168 — mid-rise multifamily
168 units · 6-story · Chinn Construction · Sep 2025 → Aug 2026
Contract: $2,184,000
Original margin target: 34%
Forecast margin: 30.4%
% complete
52%
142 days remaining of 274
Cortex status
⚠ Watch
Labor 12% over baseline. Material burn 14% above pace. Trending toward 3.6 margin points lost.
Hours variance
+1,840 hrs
+12% vs baseline at 52%
Cost variance
+$78,400
+6.9% vs baseline
Schedule variance
−4 days
slipped this week
Forecast at completion
$1,520,000
vs $1,442,000 baseline
Cumulative labor hours through % of job complete. Baseline = avg of #2001, #2008, #2010 normalized.
Baseline
Actual
Today
| Phase | % complete | Hours actual | Hours baseline | Variance | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underground rough-in | 100% | 2,840 | 2,810 | +30 | ✓ On pace |
| Slab rough-in | 100% | 3,420 | 3,160 | +260 | ⚠ Over (+8%) |
| Stack risers | 78% | 4,180 | 3,690 | +490 | ⚠ Over (+13%) |
| Top-out (DWV + water) | 35% | 5,640 | 4,580 | +1,060 | ⚠ Over (+23%) |
| Trim & fixtures | 0% | 0 | 0 | — | ○ Not started |
| Test & inspection | 0% | 0 | 0 | — | ○ Not started |
| To-date total | 52% | 16,080 | 14,240 | +1,840 (+12%) | ⚠ Watch |
Apr 7 · 14:22
Top-out hours crossed +20% threshold
DWV install on floors 4–6 ran 1,060 hours over baseline (23% above). Foreman daily reports cite 2 days lost waiting on RFI #14 (mechanical chase coordination).
Severity · HIGH
Apr 5 · 09:18
Material burn 14% above pace at 52% complete
PEX manifold material consumption is 14% above the historical curve. Slab rework on Block B (3 units) likely accounts for ~$8k of the variance. Remaining ~$6k unexplained.
Severity · HIGH
Apr 3 · 16:45
Crew tier mix shifted to 38% Tier-3
Apprentice ratio is 38% this week vs 22% historical average. Lower-tier crews historically run 12–18% slower on top-out. Cause: 4 Tier-1 plumbers redeployed to #2009 closeout punchlist.
Severity · MED
Apr 1 · 11:02
Pay app #7 received — $312k draw
Chinn approved without revision. 41-day cycle from submission, beating their 47-day average. Retainage now $109,200 (5%). On track.
Severity · INFO
Action 01 · This week
UrgentAudit slab phase scrap reports
$8–14k of unexplained material variance is concentrated in Block B slab rework. Pull foreman scrap logs and verify against AP receipts.
OwnerPM Garcia
Recovery est.$6–10k
Action 02 · This week
UrgentEscalate RFI #14 with mechanical
2 days already lost. Each additional day of waiting costs ~$3,400 in idle crew time on top-out. Push for written response by Apr 10.
OwnerPM Garcia
Bleed rate$3.4k/day
Action 03 · Next 2 weeks
StrategicRe-tier the top-out crew
Pull 2 Tier-1 plumbers off #2009 closeout (45% complete, on margin). Shift them to #2014 top-out. Replace with 2 Tier-3 on closeout.
OwnerForeman Reyes
Recovery est.~480 hrs
Forecast if all 3 actions taken
Margin recovers from 30.4% back to 33.1% — within 1 point of original 34% target. Estimated profit recovery: $59,000. The window to act closes when top-out passes 60% complete (~3 weeks).
Monday command center
— active
— pending bid
Operator Workbench.
Monday-morning decision surface for the principal. Cortex auto-writes the state of the portfolio, ranks the week's moves, and routes each role into its own workbench panel.
—
—
URGENT
3 days out
#2118 Edmonds Behar — design phase · Robison MEP just signed
409-unit Exxel Pacific job in Edmonds — 6-story + 2 towers + 3 below-grade. $7.18M total plumbing budget (largest live-pipeline bid). 22-month bid history (Mar 2024 → Jan 2026). Robison Engineering MEP design contract signed Mar 16 2026 ($125k). GMP set Nov 27 2024. Tommy Booth PM Exxel. No Gemini JDR yet — actuals will populate at first pay app.
Data basis · Exxel closed comparables #2017/#2019/#2031 + 2118 stub data.json + Robison design contract
FOLLOW UP
this week
Retention aging — 13 years on #2001 230 Broadway
$96,889 retention held by SRM since 2013. Never formally pursued. 4 other closed jobs also have retention outstanding >10 years totaling $271,482. Batch collection letter recommended.
Data basis · Portfolio retention ledger, filtered retainage > $50k AND closeout > 10 years ago
ROUTINE
no deadline
Pay app #18 for #2104 Big 1410 ready
Final pay app draft prepped — $12.9k for April closeout work, 100% billed. SRM/BMDC historical approval cycle: 32 days. Retention release target 60 days post-closeout = mid-July $59,687.
Data basis · #2104 SOV + BMDC historical draw cadence
Blended margin
—
↑ 2.1 pts vs last 10 jobs
Active backlog
—
— jobs · — billed
Next bid deadline
—
#2118 Edmonds Behar · design phase
Retention outstanding
—
— jobs with retainage
| Project | GC | Due | Cortex rec | P(win) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #2118 Edmonds Behar | Exxel Pacific | design phase | $7.18M | — | Pre-bid · Robison MEP signed |
| Project | GC | Retention | Age | Last pursued |
|---|
| GC | Jobs | Blended margin | Avg CO drift | Avg retention age |
|---|